Are we there yet? Is real estate going to improve?

Each year the Raleigh Regional Association of Realtors provides a seminar on real estate trends. Last year Dr. Michael Walden, economist from NCSU, was part of a panel and he talked about everything from household savings trends to GDP. Last year the takeaway was that until most people can save money for a down payment, or at least get out of debt, we wouldn't see a huge increase in real estate home sales.

That sentiment was echoed in a panel of commercial brokers earlier this year. The consensus was that, over time, there will be a slight improvement, but we shouldn't plan to see a huge improvement in the real estate world any time soon. Hits, not homeruns.

So today I expected to hear a lot of the same, with hopefully data showing that things are headed in a positive direction. Dr. Walden's presentation was very similar to last year with the exception that household wealth seems to be higher than liabilities, which was not the case last year. So that's good. But economic growth is still painfully slow. It's in a positive direction, but not moving up very quickly.

What was most interesting about today's seminar was Mitchell Silver's presentation titled "Emerging Issues in the 21st Century." As Raleigh's Planning Director, he has a different perspective than Realtors. He's looking far into the future while most Realtors are looking at the present, and maybe a year or so ahead. But certainly not out into 2030 and 2050.

Director Silver reviewed a lot of information very quickly, so it was hard to document exactly what he was saying and still pay attention and absorb it all. What I loved about his presentation is that, while focused mostly on demographics, it answered the WHY question for so many issues. Why is transit so important? Why are cities so focused on downtown cores? Why should we care about the development code?

The facts that I found most interesting were (most of these were national numbers):

• By 2030 North Carolina will be the 7th largest state
• Aging - There will be a 124% Increase in the population age 65+ (didn't catch the time frame on this one)
• By 2030 1 in 5 will be over age 65
• Counties are dying, shrinking because of natural decrease. Young people leaving and going toward more urban areas.
• 41% of kids are born to unwed mothers
• People aren't getting married the way they used to
• By 2015 15.5% Americans over 65 will live in poor transit areas
• Experts estimate that by 2025 there will be an excess of 20 million homes on the market that people won't want to buy
• By 2050 the white population will drop under 50% to 46%
• Hispanic population is going to triple by 2050 (has nothing to do with immigration. Based on birth rate.)
• 3 takeaways:
• Overall he is optimistic about this market. 
• Product types are changing. Homes will be smaller units. In Raleigh we have a plan. Other markets playing catch up (Atlanta). We have a growth framework connected to transit. 
• New code will allow these new products to be built (illegal today).

Like I said, he covered a lot of territory, so take these bullets with a grain of salt.  He is the expert in this area and he covered a LOT more than those bullets above. He said he would publish his slides once he was finished with the speaking circuit, so stay tuned.  Overall, I think I was most pleased with his talk because I think it is what the audience needed to hear. As real estate agents, we are essentially ambassadors for the city and we now have the data to inform our clients when or if they start to express concern about transit or all the attention being spent on downtown. Downtown cores are critical to the tax base and can generate more revenue per acre than the suburbs. Transit is a necessity, not a luxury, for the aging population. His data put everything into perspective and was very practical.  In this day and age of the 30 second sound byte and divisive politics, it was very refreshing. I'm glad he's on our team.